Ian Daly

Ian Daly Thinking of buying Euros? Then make sure you keep up to date with my Currency Market Reports to insure you buy at the right time and achieve the best exchange rate by comparing rates with against your current provider.
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Sterling held firm near recent highs against the dollar on Monday, helped by better risk appetite and signs of an economic recovery in the UK, although it lagged the euro and growth-linked currencies.

Traders said they were wary of pushing sterling much higher given worries that the recent UK economic rebound could stutter and the Bank of England would have to pump more funds into the economy. The UK's close trade links and the high exposure of its banks to the euro zone would also check gains.

While sterling's recent moves have been dominated by developments in Greece and signs of improved UK data, including better-than-expected retail sales numbers, traders said it would take its cue from the minutes of the Bank of England's latest monetary policy committee meeting, due out on Wednesday.

The pound could get a boost from the minutes as they may show two members of the interest rate-setting committee voting for fewer asset purchases. The minutes are due to be released this Wednesday at 9:30am UK time.
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If you would like to ask me any questions about today’s report or about the future outlook for GBP, EUR or USD then please don’t hesitate to message me and I will be happy to give you a call or e-mail to discuss this.

Ian Daly Thinking of buying Euros? Then make sure you keep up to date with my Currency Market Reports to insure you buy at the right time and achieve the best exchange rate by comparing rates with against your current provider.
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Sterling held above recent lows against the dollar and cut losses against the euro on Wednesday, drawing support from the Bank of England's latest inflation report which dampened expectations of further monetary stimulus. But gains looked vulnerable as BOE Governor Mervyn King said there were downside risks to a UK economic recovery given the tight fiscal conditions at home and weakness in Britain's major trading partners.

The BOE raised its two-year inflation forecast to around 1.8 percent, higher than what most economists had expected. The lower inflation expectations had been keeping alive prospects of it injecting further funds into the economy through its bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing. More QE usually has an adverse impact on the currency.

Hopes remain that a deal to stave off a Greek default will be struck although many were wary given a string of delays.
Audrey Childe-Freeman, EMEA head of currency strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank said she expected sterling to trade above $1.56 against the dollar in the near term as long as the euro holds above $1.3070.

Analysts said given UK's high exposure and strong trade links to the euro zone, sterling's gains would be muted against the dollar and as such many remain bearish about its prospects in the months ahead. They also expect austerity measures to hurt the UK economy which would derail deficit reduction, raising prospects of a downgrade of its AAA rating.
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If you would like to ask me any questions about today’s report or about the future outlook for GBP, EUR or USD then please don’t hesitate to message me and I will be happy to give you a call or e-mail to discuss this.

Ian Daly Thinking of buying Euros? Then make sure you keep up to date with my Currency Market Reports to insure you buy at the right time and achieve the best exchange rate by comparing rates with against your current provider.
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Sterling rose against the euro but slipped against the dollar on Monday as Greek politicians struggled to find consensus on bailout terms, heightening anxiety over the euro sovereign debt crisis and lending support to the U.S. currency.

A recent run of positive UK economic data gave some support to sterling, though dealers said it was unlikely to change the Bank of England from announcing an increase on Thursday in the asset purchase programme that has been weighing on the pound.

The Greek government and party leaders are yet to agree on the terms of a second bailout. They must do so before euro zone finance ministers next meet, a government official said, countering reports that a deadline had been set for today. Failure to secure a second bailout would result in an unruly default by Greece on its sovereign debt.

The main focus is on the situation in Greece which is dominating trading; Sterling is back above 1.2045 and should head higher if the Greek situation deteriorates.

The pound has benefited against the dollar since the middle of January from a rally in equities which has boosted riskier currencies, together with data showing the UK economy may be turning the corner.

A strong run of closely watched Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data last week suggested Britain could dodge recession early this year. But the Bank of England is expected to remain cautious and adopt another round of quantitative easing when it meets this week, with forecasts from economists polled by Reuters centred on a fresh 50 billion pounds being pumped into the economy.

Should the BoE surprise most in the market by announcing a larger-than-expected QE total this week, sterling is likely to come under pressure. Speculative data shows short positions are still in the ascendancy in the UK currency.

British house prices rose by 0.6 percent in January, almost completely reversing the previous month's decline, data from mortgage lender Halifax showed on Monday. House prices fell by -1.8 percent in the three months to January compared with a year ago, taking the average price of a home to 160,907 pounds.
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If you would like to ask me any questions about today’s report or about the future outlook for GBP, EUR or USD then please don’t hesitate to message me and I will be happy to give you a call or e-mail to discuss this.

Ian Daly Thinking of buying Euros? Then make sure you keep up to date with my Currency Market Reports to insure you buy at the right time and achieve the best exchange rate by comparing rates with against your current provider.
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Sterling was steady within sight of a two-and-a-half month high against the dollar on Friday, with expectations of decent services sector data later in the session offset by bets the Bank of England will announce further monetary easing next week.

Figures earlier in the week also pointed to growth in the construction and manufacturing sectors, but analysts said concerns about the UK economy were likely to persist after GDP contracted in the final quarter of 2011.

The Bank of England is still widely expected to announce an increase in its asset purchase programme next week to boost the faltering economy, keeping the pound's gains in check.

Sterling is still benefitting from a weak dollar environment, but there has been mixed sentiment and some think it's a bit too early to start drawing positive conclusions on how first quarter GDP is going to go.

Bank of England policymaker Adam Posen said in an interview on Thursday that the central bank may inject more stimulus into the economy as inflation looks set to fall as forecast. Adding to the clouded outlook for the pound, a report from a leading British think-tank said the UK economy has entered a mild recession and will shrink in 2012.

Investors were cautious of buying the Euro as negotiations over a Greek debt swap deal - crucial if the country is to avoid a messy default - dragged on and Portuguese debt yields remained at extreme levels. Sterling has been supported against the euro in recent months by investors seeking safe haven assets switching out of euro zone government into the UK gilt market.
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If you would like to ask me any questions about today’s report or about the future outlook for GBP, EUR or USD then please don’t hesitate to message me and I will be happy to give you a call or e-mail to discuss this.

Ian Daly Thinking of buying Euros? Then make sure you keep up to date with my Currency Market Reports to insure you buy at the right time and achieve the best exchange rate by comparing rates with against your current provider.
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Sterling held its ground against the euro, trading close to high for the day at 1.1990 after slipping to four-week lows of 1.1906 on Thursday.

Resistance was at 1.1873, the late December low. The euro was broadly steady, supported on hopes for a Greek debt swap deal which is needed to avert a messy default, but hampered by increasing concerns that Portugal may be heading towards a second bailout and possible debt write downs.

Sterling has been unable to take full advantage of euro zone troubles due to expectations the Bank of England will need to increase its asset purchase programme as early as next month to support Britain's flagging economy.

Those concerns were heightened after data on Wednesday showed the UK economy contracted by 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, putting it on the brink of recession.

A Confederation of British Industry survey on Thursday showed British retail sales suffered their biggest annual fall in January since March 2009, when Britain was last in recession.
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If you would like to ask me any questions about today’s report or about the future outlook for GBP, EUR or USD then please don’t hesitate to message me and I will be happy to give you a call or e-mail to discuss this.

Ian Daly Thinking of buying Euros? Then make sure you keep up to date with my Currency Market Reports to insure you buy at the right time and achieve the best exchange rate by comparing rates with against your current provider.
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Sterling fell against the dollar on Wednesday, pressured by worse-than-expected gross domestic product data showing the UK economy contracted and signs that the Bank of England is preparing for another round of quantitative easing.

Concerns about the European Central Bank having to write down its Greek bond holdings as part of a deal to avoid a disorderly default also weighed on the single currency.

UK GDP declined by 0.2 percent in the final quarter of 2011, coming in below forecasts of a 0.1 percent dip.

Bank of England minutes from the last policy meeting, released at the same time, showed members voted unanimously to keep total asset purchases at 275 billion pounds, although the minutes also said a further expansion of asset purchasing was "likely" to be required.

Market players said sterling was oversold against the euro on some concerns of an even weaker GDP number. The fact that no BoE policymakers voted for an increase in QE this month - even though it is strongly expected in February - also lent some short-term support to the pound.

QE EXPECTED
Market players are still expecting the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee to announce a further 50 billion pounds of quantitative easing next month.

In a speech on Tuesday BoE Governor Mervyn King said the central bank had scope to give the economy another cash boost if needed as inflation is falling and Britain faces an "arduous, long and uneven" economic recovery.

If they are saying "likely" in the minutes that pretty much means definitely. That's a pretty strong word from the MPC who would normally sit on the fence," said a corporate dealer.

Although the last round of QE in October did not weigh significantly on sterling, traders said the need for further economic stimulus added to a shaky outlook for the pound.
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If you would like to ask me any questions about today’s report or about the future outlook for GBP, EUR or USD then please don’t hesitate to message me and I will be happy to give you a call or e-mail to discuss this.

Ian Daly Thinking of buying Euros? Then make sure you keep up to date with my Currency Market Reports to insure you buy at the right time and achieve the best exchange rate by comparing rates with against your current provider.
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Sterling was steady against the dollar and the euro on Wednesday before today’s release of UK labour market data however after its release sterling came under some selling pressure after unemployment numbers reinforced expectations for more quantitative easing in coming months. The actual unemployment rate grew by 0.1% too 8.4% its highest recorded rate in 15 years.

Hopes that Greece and its creditors could avoid a costly default also supported sentiment towards the common currency as talks between the two sides were set to resume today. Still, the euro's outlook was at best fragile, with a senior official at Fitch warning that a two-notch downgrade of Italy was an option.

“Today’s weak figures will potentially increase the case for more QE by the Bank of England. But having said that, events in the euro zone will remain the main driver for sterling in coming days “ said a top currency analyst in central London.

On Tuesday data showed British inflation fell sharply in December, with the annual CPI rate dropping to 4.2 percent from 4.8 percent in November, supporting the Bank of England's view that consumer price inflation may have peaked.

The weaker reading added to expectations the BoE will increase asset purchases under its quantitative easing programme next month. Clear evidence of falling prices is a precondition for some BoE policymakers to back QE expansion.

But sterling is likely to stay supported against the euro with many analysts sceptical about how much further the euro could gain given rising concerns about the euro zone debt crisis.
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If you would like to ask me any questions about today’s report or about the future outlook for GBP, EUR or USD then please don’t hesitate to message me and I will be happy to give you a call or e-mail to discuss this.

Ian Daly Thinking of buying Euros? Then make sure you keep up to date with my Currency Market Reports to insure you buy at the right time and achieve the best exchange rate by comparing rates with against your current provider.
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Sterling steadied slightly against the euro on Tuesday after data showed weaker UK inflation which will increase the risk the Bank of England will opt for more monetary easing. The pound rose against a weaker dollar and other riskier currencies after data showed China's economy slowed less than expected in the fourth quarter, easing worries about the global economy.

UK inflation data showed annual CPI sliding to 4.2 percent in December from 4.8 percent the previous month, affirming the Bank of England's belief that consumer price inflation may have peaked.
The easing in price pressures will fuel expectations that the Bank of England will opt for more quantitative easing in February to aid a fragile economy. Inflation is likely to drop even further in January when last year's hike in VAT falls out of the equation.

The lower CPI is the more ammunition it gives the BoE to do more QE, and we are approaching February which is when most people think the Bank will increase asset purchases. Many analysts expect euro zone worries to push the euro back below its recent lows and towards the €1.25 mark.

On Monday, ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut its credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro zone's rescue fund, by one notch to AA+, serving another blow to efforts to fight the crisis.

However, concerns are also growing about the UK economy, with recent weak data suggesting a high risk of recession. Some believe in the weeks to come data may weigh more heavily on sterling, which late last year was largely immune to UK worries as investors sought alternatives to euro zone assets.
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If you would like to ask me any questions about today’s report or about the future outlook for GBP, EUR or USD then please don’t hesitate to message me and I will be happy to give you a call or e-mail to discuss this.